Words mediated by coffee.
An unfiltered and roasted weblog by David Passmore in State College, Pennsylvania, USA.

Monday, 06 February 2006

Off to Florida tomorrow...

Rose Baker and I travel to St. Petes Beach, Florida, tomorrow (7 Feb), where we have been invited to make a presentation titled, A Market for HR Ideas: An Invitation to Put Your Assets Where Your Thoughts Are. Back on Friday, but hope to blog the Florida trip. Will post some presentation information soon.

Cold and wintry here; forecast to be in the 60s degrees F and partly sunny to sunny during our visit. Coffee, hot and dark

| posted by David Passmore (aka dpassmore), February 06, 2006 14:52 |
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Friday, 03 February 2006

That furry little rat saw his shadow, and, folks, we're in for a hell of a problem...

Life is a comedy for those who think,
A tragedy for those who feel.

--Horace Walpole (1717-1797)

2 February. Candlemas Day to some. But, in the ol' US of A, it is Groundhog Day!

Ah, yes, Groundhog Day. A true American tradition. If a groundhog, Phil, sees his shadow in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, we will have six more weeks of winter. That's it. .That's the forecasting technology. That's the tradition.

What you need to know about Groundhog Day and Punxy Phil:
  • Yes! Punxsutawney Phil is the only true weather forecasting groundhog. The others are just impostors.
  • How often is Phil's prediction correct? 100% of the time, of course!
  • How many "Phils" have there been over the years? There has only been one Punxsutawney Phil. He has been making predictions for over 120 years!
  • Punxsutawney Phil gets his longevity from drinking "groundhog punch," a secret recipe. Phil takes one sip every summer at the Groundhog Picnic and it magically gives him seven more years of life.
  • On February 2, Phil comes out of his burrow on Gobbler's Knob - in front of thousands of followers from all over the world - to predict the weather for the rest of winter.
  • According to legend, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather. If he does not see his shadow, there will be an early spring.
  • No! Phil's forecasts are not made in advance by the Inner Circle. After Phil emerges from his burrow on February 2, he speaks to the Groundhog Club president in "Groundhogese"(a language only understood by the current president of the Inner Circle). His proclamation is then translated for the world.
  • The celebration of Groundhog Day began with Pennsylvania's earliest settlers. They brought with them the legend of Candlemas Day, which states, "For as the sun shines on Candlemas Day, so far will the snow swirl in May..."
  • Punxsutawney held its first Groundhog Day in the 1800s. The first official trek to Gobbler's Knob was made on February 2, 1887.
  • So the story goes, Punxsutawney Phil was named after King Phillip. Prior to being called Phil, he was called Br'er Groundhog.
Of course, you want to know Phil's official prediction:

Phil Says Six More Weeks of Winter!

Phil's official forecast as read 2/2/06 at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob:

It is said that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Around the country there are many imitators of me.

In Harrisburg there is Gus who appears on TV
working for the lottery.

Then all around town,
Cute groundhog statues abound.
They all look like me, I found.

Today on the Knob as I'm doing my job,
I don't like this likeness of me.

It's my shadow I see. Six more weeks of mild winter there will be.

Yes, it is a true American--and especially, Pennsylvanian--tradition. Not as much fun as marrying cousins. But, very damn close.Coffee, hot and dark

| posted by David Passmore (aka dpassmore), February 03, 2006 07:30 |
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Wednesday, 01 February 2006

The economics of Superbowl madness...

The Superbowl will occur this weekend. The Pittsburgh Steelers v the Seattle Seahawks. The price/volume plot for the prediction market at Newsfutures for the proposition, "Pittsburgh Steelers over Seattle Seahawks (02/05, 6:05 pm)," says that traders believe that the Steelers have a good chance of winning:

Last trading price = 63
The plot is updated daily. Put your money down!

OK, this posting occurred, obviously, before the Superbowl was played. The graphic that I display above was dynamic--that is, it was updated as the market changed. Notice that, as the game was played late on 5 February, the price fluctuated, taking a dip as the Steelers had troubles initially and rising as the game progressed. The futures market price converged on the "spot price" (the price of the commodity as delivery date nears) as people began to see that the Steelers would win. If you bought stock on a Steelers' win a week or so before the game, you would have seen the value of your stock rise from about 65 cents. A tidy profit. This is a binary, winner-take-all market. All stock on a Steelers' win pays off at $1. If you bet on the Seahawks, the value of your stock is $0. Yeh, that's like nothing. Zero.

I don't know how long this graphic will be active (and, therefore, persist on this blog), but this price/volume plot Illustrates how idea futures markets work.Coffee, hot and dark

| posted by David Passmore (aka dpassmore), February 01, 2006 12:47 |
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Coffee should be black as hell, strong as death, and sweet as love.
-- Turkish Proverb




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